JIN Zhimei 1 , HUANG Wenlong 1 , CHEN Yongze 1 , WANG Shihong 1 , LAI Fengxia 1 , YANG Zhibin 2 , DING Haifeng 3 , XU Ruhong 4 , YU Haibing 1,5
  • 1. School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, the First Dongguan Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan Chronic Disease Prevention and Control Key Laboratory, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
  • 2. School of Information Engineering, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
  • 3. Department of Geriatrics, the First Dongguan Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
  • 4. Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Dongguan Ninth People’s Hospital (Dongguan Hospital for Infectious Diseases), Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
  • 5. The First Dongguan Affiliated Hospital, Guangdong Medical University, State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
XU Ruhong, Email: 67292122@qq.com; YU Haibing, Email: hby616688@gdmu.edu.cn
Acute viral hepatitis; incidence; mortality; autoregressive integrated moving average model
10.7507/1002-0179.202411100
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Objective  To analyze the incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China, project its trends from 2022 to 2030, and provide valuable insights for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis. Methods  The incidence and mortality rates of acute viral hepatitis in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. The change rates and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for each indicator were calculated. Additionally, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to project the incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China from 2022 to 2030. Results  From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rates of acute hepatitis A (AHA), acute hepatitis B (AHB), acute hepatitis C (AHC), and acute hepatitis E (AHE) in China all showed a declining trend (EAPC=−1.980%, −2.664%, −2.078%, −1.686%; P<0.05), with a particularly marked decrease in mortality (EAPC=−11.662%, −7.411%, −12.541%, −7.504%; P<0.05). According to ARIMA model projections, the incidence rates of AHA and AHB were expected to continue declining from 2022 to 2030, while the incidence rates of AHC and AHE were expected to rise. In 2030, the projected incidence rates of AHA, AHB, AHC, and AHE were 890.425/100000, 824.158/100000, 59.202/100000, and 300.377/100000, respectively. The mortality rates of AHA, AHC, and AHE were projected to remain stable from 2022 to 2030, while the mortality rate of AHB was expected to decline. In 2030, the projected mortality rates of AHA, AHB, AHC, and AHE were 0.002/100000, 0/100000, 0.004/100000, and 0.011/100000, respectively. Conclusions  From 1990 to 2021, the overall incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China showed a downward trend. However, the incidence rates of AHC and AHE may present an upward trend in the future, which suggests that the government and relevant health authorities should adjust their prevention and control strategies in a timely manner.

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