• Division of Liver Surgery, Department of General Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, P. R. China;
WEN Tianfu, Email: wentianfu@scu.edu.cn
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Objective To investigate the predictive value of the preoperative peripheral blood neutrophil percentage-to-albumin ratio (NPAR) for survival after radical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to construct a nomogram prediction model based on NPAR. Methods According to inclusion and exclusion criteria, the HCC patients with China Liver Cancer Staging (CNLC) stage Ⅰa–Ⅱa who underwent radical hepatectomy at West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 to December 2020 were retrospectively collected and then randomly divided into a training set and a validation set with a 7∶3 ratio. The optimal cutoff value for NPAR was determined using X-tile. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify the independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) in HCC patients and then construct a nomogram model. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve, as well as validated in the validation set. Results A total of 3 423 HCC patients with CNLC stage Ⅰa–Ⅱa were enrolled in this study, with 2 397 in the training set and 1 026 in the validation set. There were no statistically significant differences in baseline characteristics between the training and validation sets (P>0.05). The optimal cutoff value for NPAR was 17.0, and patients with NPAR ≤17.0 (2 124 cases) had significantly better OS and relapse-free survival (RFS) than those with NPAR>17.0 (273 cases). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis showed that the AFP>400 μg/L, NPAR>17.0, multiple tumors, tumor diameter >5 cm, poor tumor differentiation, capsular invasion, microvascular invasion, and satellite lesions were the independent risk factors affecting postoperative OS in HCC patients (RR>1, P<0.05). The nomogram constructed based on these risk factors demonstrated good discriminations for OS and RFS (C-indexes of 0.708 and 0.709, respectively) and predictive performance in both the training and validation sets. Conclusions Preoperative high NPAR (>17.0) in HCC patients with CNLC Ⅰa–Ⅱa stages is associated with significantly worse OS compared to those with low NPAR (≤17.0). The nomogram prediction model based on NPAR can effectively predict postoperative survival.

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