Objective To scoping review the risk prediction models for sarcopenia in China was conducted, and provide reference for scientific prevention and treatment of the disease and related research. Methods We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Embase, China Knowledge Network, China Biomedical Literature Database, Wanfang Database, and Weipu Database for literature related to myasthenia gravis prediction models in China, with a time frame from the construction of the database to April 30, 2024 for the search. The risk of bias and applicability of the included literature were assessed, and information on the construction of myasthenia gravis risk prediction models, model predictors, model presentation form and performance were extracted. Results A total of 25 literatures were included, the prevalence of sarcopenia ranged from 12.16% to 54.17%, and the study population mainly included the elderly, the model construction methods were categorized into two types: logistic regression model and machine learning, and age, body mass index, and nutritional status were the three predictors that appeared most frequently. Conclusion Clinical caregivers should pay attention to the high-risk factors for the occurrence of sarcopenia, construct models with accurate predictive performance and high clinical utility with the help of visual model presentation, and design prospective, multicenter internal and external validation methods to continuously improve and optimize the models to achieve the best predictive effect.
Objective To systematically evaluate risk prediction models for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and provide a reference for early clinical identification. Methods The literature on the risk prediction models of acute exacerbation of COPD published by CNKI, VIP, Cochrane, Embase and Web of Science database was searched in Chinese and English from inception to April 2022, and relevant studies were collected on the development of risk prediction models for acute exacerbations of COPD. After independent screening of the literature and extraction of information by two independent researchers, the quality of the included literature was evaluated using the PROBASTA tool. Results Five prospective studies, one retrospective case-control study and seven retrospective cohort studies were included, totally 13 papers containing 24 models. Twelve studies (92.3%) reported the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve ranging 0.66 to 0.969. Only five studies reported calibrated statistics, and three studies were internally and externally validated. The overall applicability of 13 studies was good, but there was a high risk of bias, mainly in the area of analysis. Conclusions The existing predictive risk models for acute exacerbations of COPD are unsatisfactory, with wide variation in model performance, inappropriate and incomplete inclusion of predictors, and a need for better ways to develop and validate high-quality predictive models. Future research should refine the study design and study report, and continue to update and validate existing models. Secondly medical staff should develop and implement risk stratification strategies for acute exacerbations of COPD based on predicted risk classification results in order to reduce the frequency of acute exacerbations and to facilitate the rational allocation of medical resources.
Objective To investigate the risk factors for Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infections, and construct a clinical model for predicting the risk of CRKP infections. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on Klebsiella pneumoniae infection patients hospitalized in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University from May 2020 to May 2021. The patients were divided into a CRKP group (117 cases) and a Carbapenem-sensitive Klebsiella pneumoniae (CSKP) group (191 cases). The predictors were screened by full subset regression using R software (version 4.3.1). The truncation values of continuous data were determined by Youden index. Nomogram and score table model for CRKP infections risk prediction was constructed based on binary logistic regression. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and area under curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the accuracy of models. Calibration curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the performance of models. Results308 patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae infections were included. A total of 8 predictors were selected by using full subset regression and truncation values were determined according to Youden index: intensive care unit (ICU) stay at time of infection>2 days, male, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) score>15 points, hospitalization stay at time of infection>10 days, any history of Gram-negative bacteria infection in the last 6 months, heart disease, lung infection, antibiotic exposure history in the last 6 months. The AUC of CRKP prediction risk curve model was 0.811 (95%CI 0.761 - 0.860). When the optimal cut-off value of the constructed CRKP prediction risk rating table was 6 points, the AUC was 0.723 (95%CI 0.672 - 0.774). The Bootstrap method was used for internal repeated sampling for 1000 times for verification. The model calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=0.618) showed that these models have good calibration degree. The decision curve showed that these models have good clinical effectiveness. Conclusion The prediction model of CRKP infections based on the above 8 risk factors can be used as a risk prediction tool for clinical identification of CRKP infections.
ObjectivesTo compare different formula calculated dosages with the actual doses of warfarin from patients in Beijing Hospital so as to investigate suitable warfarin dosing models for Chinese patients.MethodsOne hundred and three Chinese patients with long-term prescription of warfarin were randomly selected from Beijing Hospital from July 2012 to May 2013. The CYP2C9 and VKROC1 genotypes and basic statistical information were collected. SPSS 18.0 software was used to compare the differences between different formula calculated dosages and the actual dosages of warfarin.ResultsFive genotypes were found in 103 patients, including: CYP2C9 AA genotype + VKORC1 AA genotype (n=72, 69.9%), CYP2C9 AA genotype + VKORC1 AG genotype (n=17, 16.5%), CYP2C9 AC genotype + VKORC1 AA genotype (n=10, 9.7%), CYP2C9 AC genotype + VKORC1 AG genotype (n=3, 2.9%) and CYP2C9 AA genotype + VKORC1 GG genotype (n=1, 1%). Compared with the actual dosages of warfarin, the degree of coincidence was highest for dosages calculated by Jeffrey’s formula.Conclusions Using Jeffrey’s formula to calculate warfarin dosages may be more suitable for Chinese patients with using long-term warfarin. Due to limited sample size, prospective and large sample size studies are required to verify the above conclusion.
ObjectiveTo summarize the current status and update of the use of medical imaging in risk prediction of pancreatic fistula following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).MethodA systematic review was performed based on recent literatures regarding the radiological risk factors and risk prediction of pancreatic fistula following PD.ResultsThe risk prediction of pancreatic fistula following PD included preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative aspects. Visceral obesity was the independent risk factor for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF). Radiographically determined sarcopenia had no significant predictive value on CR-POPF. Smaller pancreatic duct diameter and softer pancreatic texture were associated with higher incidence of pancreatic fistula. Besides the surgeons’ subjective intraoperative perception, quantitative assessment of the pancreatic texture based on medical imaging had been reported as well. In addition, the postoperative laboratory results such as drain amylase and serum lipase level on postoperative day 1 could also be used for the evaluation of the risk of pancreatic fistula.ConclusionsRisk prediction of pancreatic fistula following PD has considerable clinical significance, it leads to early identification and early intervention of the risk factors for pancreatic fistula. Medical imaging plays an important role in this field. Results from relevant studies could be used to optimize individualized perioperative management of patients undergoing PD.
Acute lung injury is one of the common and serious complications of acute aortic dissection, and it greatly affects the recovery of patients. Old age, overweight, hypoxemia, smoking history, hypotension, extensive involvement of dissection and pleural effusion are possible risk factors for the acute lung injury before operation. In addition, deep hypothermia circulatory arrest and blood product infusion can further aggravate the acute lung injury during operation. In this paper, researches on risk factors, prediction model, prevention and treatment of acute aortic dissection with acute lung injury were reviewed, in order to provide assistance for clinical diagnosis and treatment.
ObjectiveTo analyze the risk factors for esophagogastric anastomotic leakage (EGAL) after esophageal cancer surgery, and to establish a risk prediction model for early prevention and treatment.MethodsClinical data of patients undergoing esophagectomy in our hospital from January 2013 to October 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The independent risk factors for postoperative EGAL were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and a clinical nomogram prediction model was established. According to whether EGAL occurred after operation, the patients were divided into an anastomotic fistula group and a non-anastomotic fistula group.ResultsA total of 303 patiens were enrolled, including 267 males and 36 females with a mean age of 62.30±7.36 years. The incidence rate of postoperative EGAL was 15.2% (46/303). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that high blood pressure, chronic bronchitis, peptic ulcer, operation way, the number of lymph node dissected, anastomotic way, the number of intraoperative chest drainage tube, tumor location, no-supplementing albumin in the first three days after operation, postoperative pulmonary infection, postoperative use of bronchoscope were the independent risk factors for EGAL after esophageal cancer surgery (P<0.05). A prognostic nomogram model was established based on these factors with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.954 (95%CI 0.924-0.975), indicating a high predictive value.ConclusionThe clinical prediction model based on 11 perioperative risk factors in the study has a good evaluation efficacy and can promote the early detection, diagnosis and treatment of EGAL.
Surgical risk prediction is to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality with internationally authoritative mathematical models. For patients undergoing high-risk cardiac surgery, surgical risk prediction is helpful for decision-making on treatment strategies and minimization of postoperative complications, which has gradually arouse interest of cardiac surgeons. There are many risk prediction models for cardiac surgery in the world, including European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), Ontario Province Risk (OPR)score, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)score, Cleveland Clinic risk score, Quality Measurement and Management Initiative (QMMI), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA)Guidelines for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery, and Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation (SinoSCORE). All these models are established from the database of thousands or ten thousands patients undergoing cardiac surgery in a specific region. As different sources of data and calculation imparities exist, there are probably bias and heterogeneities when the models are applied in other regions. How to decrease deviation and improve predicting effects had become the main research target in the future. This review focuses on the progress of risk prediction models for patients undergoing cardiac surgery.
Objective To systematically review risk prediction models of in-hospital cardiac arrest in patients with cardiovascular disease, and to provide references for related clinical practice and scientific research for medical professionals in China. Methods Databases including CBM, CNKI, WanFang Data, PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library, Wiley Online Journals and Scopus were searched to collect studies on risk prediction models for in-hospital cardiac arrest in patients with cardiovascular disease from January 2010 to July 2022. Two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted data, and evaluated the risk of bias of the included studies. Results A total of 5 studies (4 of which were retrospective studies) were included. Study populations encompassed mainly patients with acute coronary syndrome. Two models were modeled using decision trees. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve or C statistic of the five models ranged from 0.720 to 0.896, and only one model was verified externally and for time. The most common risk factors and immediate onset factors of in-hospital cardiac arrest in patients with cardiovascular disease included in the prediction model were age, diabetes, Killip class, and cardiac troponin. There were many problems in analysis fields, such as insufficient sample size (n=4), improper handling of variables (n=4), no methodology for dealing with missing data (n=3), and incomplete evaluation of model performance (n=5). Conclusion The prediction efficiency of risk prediction models for in-hospital cardiac arrest in patients with cardiovascular disease was good; however, the model quality could be improved. Additionally, the methodology needs to be improved in terms of data sources, selection and measurement of predictors, handling of missing data, and model evaluations. External validation of existing models is required to better guide clinical practice.
Objective To identify risk factors that affect the verification of malignancy in patients with solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) and verify different prediction models for malignant probability of SPN. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 117 SPN patients with definite postoperative pathological diagnosis who underwent surgical procedure in China-Japan Friendship Hospital from March to September 2017. There were 59 males and 58 females aged 59.10±11.31 years ranging from 24 to 83 years. Imaging features of the nodule including maximum diameter, location, spiculation, lobulation, calcification and serum level of CEA and Cyfra21-1 were assessed as potential risk factors. Univariate analysis was used to establish statistical correlation between risk factors and postoperative pathological diagnosis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn by different predictive models for the malignant probability of SPN to get areas under the curves (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, negative predictive values for each model. The predictive effectiveness of each model was statistically assessed subsequently. Results Among 117 patients, 93 (79.5%) were malignant and 24 (20.5%) were benign. Statistical difference was found between the benign and malignant group in age, maximum diameter, serum level of CEA and Cyfra21-1, spiculation, lobulation and calcification of the nodules. The AUC value was 0.813±0.051 (Mayo model), 0.697±0.066 (VA model) and 0.854±0.045 (Peking University People's Hospital model), respectively. Conclusion Age, maximum diameter of the nodule, serum level of CEA and Cyfra21-1, spiculation, lobulation and calcification are potential independent risk factors associated with the malignant probability of SPN. Peking University People's Hospital model is of high accuracy and clinical value for patients with SPN. Adding serum index into the prediction model as a new risk factor and adjusting the weight of age in the model may improve the accuracy of prediction for SPN.