Objective To explore the risk factors of lymph node metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer, and construct a risk prediction model to provide reference for clinical diagnosis and treatment.Methods The clinicopathological data of 416 patients with colorectal cancer who underwent radical resection of colorectal cancer in the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from May 2018 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. The correlation between lymph node metastasis and preoperative inflammatory markers, clinicopathological factors and tumor markers were analyzed. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of lymph node metastasis, and R language was used to construct nomogram model for evaluating the risk of colorectal cancer lymph node metastasis before surgery, and drew a calibration curve and compared with actual observations. The Bootstrap method was used for internal verification, and the consistency index (C-index) was calculated to evaluate the accuracy of the model.Results The results of univariate analysis showed that factors such as sex, age, tumor location, smoking history, hypertension and diabetes history were not significantly related to lymph node metastasis (all P>0.05). The factors related to lymph node metastasis were tumor size, T staging, tumor differentiation level, fibrinogen, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), fibrinogen/albumin ratio (FAR), fibrinogen/prealbumin ratio (FpAR), CEA, and CA199 (all P<0.05). The results of logistic regression analysis showed the FpAR [OR=3.630, 95%CI (2.208, 5.968), P<0.001], CA199 [OR=2.058, 95%CI (1.221, 3.470), P=0.007], CEA [OR=2.335, 95%CI (1.372, 3.975), P=0.002], NLR [OR=2.532, 95%CI (1.491, 4.301), P=0.001], and T staging were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis. The above independent risk factors were enrolled to construct regression equation and nomogram model, the area under the ROC curve of this equation was 0.803, and the sensitivity and specificity were 75.2% and 73.5%, respectively. The consistency index (C-index) of the nomogram prediction model in this study was 0.803, and the calibration curve showed that the result of predicting lymph node metastasis was highly consistent with actual observations.Conclusions FpAR>0.018, NLR>3.631, CEA>4.620 U/mL, CA199>21.720 U/mL and T staging are independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis. The nomogram can accurately predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer before surgery, and provide certain assistance in the formulation of clinical diagnosis and treatment plans.
LIU Zitao, HUANG Chao, TIAN Huakai, ZHOU Taicheng, XIA Yongqiang, XIAO Li, ZONG Zhen. A predictive model for the risk of lymph node metastasis in colorectal cancer. CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY, 2021, 28(8): 1045-1050. doi: 10.7507/1007-9424.202011102