Objective Based on a large sample of data, study the factors affecting the survival and prognosis of patients with rectal cancer and construct a prediction model for the survival and prognosis.Methods The clinical data of 26 028 patients with rectal cancer were screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) clinical database of the National Cancer Institute. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were used to screen related risk factors. Finally, the Nomogram prediction model was summarized and its accuracy was verified.Results Result of multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that the risk factors affecting the survival probability of rectal cancer included: age, gender, marital status, TMN staging, T staging, tumor size, degree of tissue differentiation, total number of lymph nodes removed, positive lymph node ratio, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy (P<0.05). Then we further built the Nomogram prediction model. The C index of the training cohort and the validation cohort were 0.764 and 0.770, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (0.777 and 0.762) for 3 years and 5 years, and the calibration curves of internal and external validation all indicated that the model could effectively predict the survival probability of rectal cancer.Conclusion The constructed Nomogram model can predict the survival probability of rectal cancer, and has clinical guiding significance for the prognostic intervention of rectal cancer.
TAN Ling, LIU Zilin, TANG Linghan, XIAO Jiangwei. Construction and verification of a long-term survival prediction model for rectal cancer－Nomogram. CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY, 2021, 28(8): 1031-1038. doi: 10.7507/1007-9424.202012027