Objective To accurately predict the outpatient and emergency visits of a district-level public hospital based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, providing important basis for hospital budget planning and operational decisions. Methods The monthly outpatient and emergency visits of a public hospital in Shuangliu District, Chengdu City from January 2012 to November 2023 were collected, and R 4.3.1 software was used to establish an ARIMA model based on the data from January 2012 to December 2022. The outpatient and emergency visits from January to November 2023 were predicted and validated. Results Except for January and March 2023, every monthly number of predicted outpatient and emergency visits for 2023 matched the actual one relatively well. The average absolute percentage error for January to November 2023 was 8.504%. The actual total number of outpatient and emergency visits from January to November 2023 was 1441960, and the predicted value was 1417130 with a relative error of –1.722%. Conclusions ARIMA model can predict the outpatient and emergency visits of district-level hospitals relatively well. However, factors such as the high incidence of COVID-19 may affect the accuracy of short-term prediction.
ObjectiveTo understand the current status of healthcare human resources (HHR) in a large public hospital, predict the HHR demand aligned with the development of the hospital, and provide reference basis and feasible solutions for HHR planning for high-quality development of the large public hospital. MethodsBased on grey model and auto regressive integrated moving average model, a variance reciprocal method for weight allocation was applied to set up the combination forecasting model. Different types of HHR demand of the large public hospital from 2024 to 2026 were predicted and the accuracies of the three different model predictions were compared. ResultsThe numbers of total personnel, health technical personnel, physicians, nurses, and technicians predicted by the combination forecasting model for 2026 were 17654, 13041, 4389, 6198, and 2264, respectively. The corresponding average annual growth rates from 2024 to 2026 were 5.54%, 5.55%, 5.37%, 4.27%, and 5.60%, respectively. Compared with the two single forecasting models, the combination forecasting model had the smallest average absolute errors, mean squared errors, and mean absolute percentage errors for predicting the numbers of total personnel, nurses, and technicians. It also had the smallest average absolute error and mean absolute percentage error for predicting the number of health technical personnel, and the smallest average absolute error for predicting the number of physicians. ConclusionsCompared with the single forecasting model, the combination forecasting model shows fewer system errors and better predictive results. The demand for total personnel, health technical personnel, physicians, nurses, and technicians of this large public hospital will continue to increase, so planning and reserving staff in advance is a key to high-quality development of the hospital.
Objective To assess the burden of hypertensive nephropathy in China and the world from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021, standardized prevalence, standardized mortality and standardized disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates were used to describe the burden of hypertensive nephropathy in China and the world from 1990 to 2021. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and autoregressive integrated moving average model were used to reveal the trend of disease burden. Results From 1990 to 2021, the EAPCs of standardized prevalence, standardized mortality and standardized DALY rates of hypertensive nephropathy in China were −0.61% (−0.73%, −0.50%), −0.77% (−0.85%, −0.69%), and −1.00% (−1.09%, −0.91%), respectively. The global EAPCs for standardized prevalence, standardized mortality, and standardized DALY rates of hypertensive nephropathy were −0.16% (−0.18%, −0.13%), 0.97% (0.91%, 1.03%), and 0.63% (0.58%, 0.67%), respectively. The standardized prevalence rate, standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of hypertensive nephropathy in China all showed a downward trend, and the global standardized prevalence rate also showed a downward trend, while the global standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate showed an upward trend, and the indicators of disease burden in China were lower than the global level. The standardized mortality rate and the standardized DALY rate of hypertensive nephropathy were higher in males than in females. With the increase of age, the disease burden indicators of hypertensive nephropathy in China and the world were on the rise, and the age of disease and death were concentrated in the age group over 65 years old. Renal dysfunction and hypertension were important risk factors for death in hypertensive nephropathy patients. It was estimated that from 2022 to 2040, the standardized prevalence rate and mortality rate of hypertensive nephropathy would be on the rise in China and the world, and the standardized DALY rate would be on the rise in the world, while in China it would be on the decline. Conclusions The burden of hypertensive nephropathy is heavy in China and the world from 1990 to 2021, and the control of hypertension and prevention of renal dysfunction should be strengthened. It is estimated that the standardized prevalence and mortality of hypertensive nephropathy will increase in China and the world from 2022 to 2040, and the disease burden will remain heavy.
Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China, project its trends from 2022 to 2030, and provide valuable insights for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis. Methods The incidence and mortality rates of acute viral hepatitis in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. The change rates and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for each indicator were calculated. Additionally, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to project the incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China from 2022 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rates of acute hepatitis A (AHA), acute hepatitis B (AHB), acute hepatitis C (AHC), and acute hepatitis E (AHE) in China all showed a declining trend (EAPC=−1.980%, −2.664%, −2.078%, −1.686%; P<0.05), with a particularly marked decrease in mortality (EAPC=−11.662%, −7.411%, −12.541%, −7.504%; P<0.05). According to ARIMA model projections, the incidence rates of AHA and AHB were expected to continue declining from 2022 to 2030, while the incidence rates of AHC and AHE were expected to rise. In 2030, the projected incidence rates of AHA, AHB, AHC, and AHE were 890.425/100000, 824.158/100000, 59.202/100000, and 300.377/100000, respectively. The mortality rates of AHA, AHC, and AHE were projected to remain stable from 2022 to 2030, while the mortality rate of AHB was expected to decline. In 2030, the projected mortality rates of AHA, AHB, AHC, and AHE were 0.002/100000, 0/100000, 0.004/100000, and 0.011/100000, respectively. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the overall incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China showed a downward trend. However, the incidence rates of AHC and AHE may present an upward trend in the future, which suggests that the government and relevant health authorities should adjust their prevention and control strategies in a timely manner.